Smoke Modeling

Smoke impact prediction modeling is an important component to creating daily forecasts about how smoke will impact air quality. US Forest Service scientists with the AirFire team develop and customize such models to support the Program. Specifically, the SmartFire2 system uses satellite fire detections and other datasets such as fire perimeters to provide fire activity information (fire location and size) to the BlueSky smoke modeling framework which links together mapped vegetation datasets, fuel consumption and emission models, and plume rise algorithms to provide information on smoke transport and concentration. Daily smoke (e.g. 1-hr PM2.5 concentrations) predictions are provided on a variety of scales, from local highly resolved 1-km scales, to continental 12-km scales. These smoke predictions are used by ARA’s and others to produce products and information useful to the public so they may assess their risk and take necessary actions to protect themselves.

Access BlueSky framework smoke predictions at the following links

BlueSky Daily Run Interactive Map (WebSky)

*Sample animated output from BlueSky framework

BlueSky Daily Run File Download

Sample output files from BlueSky framework

Note: Runs are provided for research purposes only, and may not accurately reflect actual smoke due to numerous reasons. Data are provisional; use at own risk.